Why did Thomas Malthus believe that population growth would surpass the available resources?

LAND RESOURCE EXPLOITATION: FOOD PRODUCTION

Population Growth and Food Production:

Malthusian Theory:

The relationship between food production and food supply was first expressed by an English Economist called Thomas Robert Malthus (1798 -1823). Malthus stated that population increased in a geometric progression (ie., 2, 4, 16, 132…) while food production increased in arithmetic progression (ie., 2, 4, 6, 8…). Thus population grew faster than food production and tended to outstrip it in a short time. He wrote; unless humans can limit reproduction voluntarily through self-restraint, population would be reduced by catastrophic events such as diseases, starvation, misery and wars.

Background to Malthus’s Theory

He wrote at a time of great social and economic upheaval in England at the onset of the industrial revolution. Rapid changes were under way in both agriculture and industry. The casualties of these changes, destitute migrants roamed the streets.

Validity of Malthusian Theory

a)               In economically advanced countries

b)              In poor developing countries

Policy Implications of Malthusian Theory

a) The theory has formed the basis for several policies on population growth and development assistance (ie., birth control & family planning).

b) Neo-Malthusians have revived these views to support public policies about population growth.

Global Population Growth:

The human population has increased enormously in recent decades.

a)               1880 = I billion people

b)              1930 = 2 billion

c)               1960 = 3 billion

d)              1975 = 4 billion

e)               1999 = 6 billion

f)                2025 = 8 billion people (estimate)

Population Growth rates:

1) First half of the 20th Century = Averaged 0.8%.

2) Late 1960’s & early 1970’s = Around 2% p. a.

3) 1970 world population grew at = 2.06% p.a.

Growth rates in the developed countries continue to fall sometimes below 1% but those in the developing world exceeded 2.5%.

Food Production:

Growth in food production has exceeded population growth in many areas. Expansion in world’s food output has outpaced that of demand resulting in declining prices for major food crops - cereals, root crops, meat, milk and fish - in international markets.

Per Capita Food Production (each person).

Advanced countries:

a) 1960’s = 2300 calories a day per person

b) 1990’s = 2700 calories a day per person

The developing world:

a) 1960’s = 2400 calories a day per person

b) 1990 = 2500 calories a day per person

In absolute terms, food has become more abundant but there are major disparities between the food supply and demand. Mal-distribution lay at the heart of the food problem.

Spatial imbalance in food supply:

Although world’s food supply has increased over the years, it has not done so in all countries (or continents) Africa stands out as the major exception to the overall trend in food increases.

Socio-economic imbalance:

World’s food production has increased but not all people are adequately fed. Even the poor in developed countries often go hungry or rarely get the normal calories of food to eat.

Why did Global Food Production Increase?

1.         Expansion of the cropland area:

Concerns about Future Crop yield Increases

The rate of increase in yields and hence in total food production is slowing. 3.7%, 2.5% and 2.1% respectively in the 1960’s, 1970’s and the 1980’s.

a) Emergence of pests resistance to pesticides,

b) Contamination of water bodies by fertilizers and pesticides residues,

c) Transfer of fertile agricultural land to urbanization,

d) Land degradation,

e) Aging Farmers and no replacement

f) Ethical issues about genetic engineering.

How Governments Intervene in Agricultural Production

a)               Funding of research in agriculture

b)              Direct price support (subsidies for fertilizer, pesticides, land leases etc)

c)               Protection against imports of similar goods produced by local farmers

d)              Incentives to modernize agriculture

e)               Tax exemptions and reliefs.

f)                Direct cash payments to farmers to reduce prices of agricultural goods below world market price.

Why Government Intervention in Agriculture?

a)               Food security and stability in hard times

b)              Check inflation and ensure low cost of living.

c)               Ensure food self-sufficiency.

Food Aid:

Many developing countries cannot or do not grow enough food and cannot also afford to import grains so in times of disasters, US and other advanced nations rally to provide food aid. United States has been the greatest contributor and African countries have been the largest recipients.

Why Food Aid may be less Desirable

a)               Free, low-cost food aid drive down food prices in causing local farmers to lose out.

b)              Food aid can become an essential part of the national food supply denying recipient countries

of self-sufficiency in food production.

c)               Distribution of the food does not always reach those in greatest need who often live in remote

rural areas than in the urban areas

d)              Food aid may be offered in exchange of political support

e)               In reality the food given as aid is often surplus food that accumulates in developed countries.

Genetically Engineered Foods (Biotechnology):

The area planted with GM crops increased from 1.7 million hectares in 1996 to 27.8 million hectares in 1998. In 1999, the area under cultivation was 39.9 million hectares.

Over 99% of increases in GM foods have occurred in just three countries:

1.               United States 72%

2.               Argentina 17%

3.               Canada, 10%

4.               9 other countries - China, Australia, South Africa, Mexico, Spain, France, Portugal and Romania - were growing transgenic crops in 1999 with total areas just one percent of the global total area.

Developing Countries and Genetically Engineered Foods

Advantages:

1.               Tropical agriculture is less productive than agriculture in the temperate regions of the world

because of poor soil, extremes of moisture and heat, drought, and a host of pests and parasites

that attack crops. For example, over 30% of crop yield is lost to pathogens and pests in parts

of Africa.

2.               Pesticide use would be reduced through the use of herbicide resistant gm varieties. This will

reduce runoff of pesticides into surface streams and groundwater.

3.               The planting of high yielding gm plant varieties would halt expansion in agricultural land to

increase crop yield. This could reduce deforestation and land degradation in the tropics.

4.               Scientist in developing countries will benefit from research already done in developed

countries.

Disadvantages:

1.               If gm crops continue to be developed by private firms, farmers in developing countries would

find seeds too expensive to purchase.

2.               Developing countries would come to depend upon private foreign companies whose

operations are based on profit rather than food security and low food prices.

3.               The problem of using indigenous plants from developing countries to develop new gm crops

and applying foreign patent laws to own them.

4.               Disagreements over genetic uniformity of crops thereby narrowing biological varieties we

have today

5.               Developing countries have few institutions that can monitor and abate hazards that

accompany gm food production & the social problems of its commercialization

The risks of genetically modified crops:

a)               The likelihood of transgenes escaping from cultivated crops into wild relatives (or

contaminating organic varieties on nearby farms). A potential solution is to incorporate the

gene in the plastids genome.

b)              Creation of new viruses and plant diseases with no known properties through the exchange of

genes.

c)               The potential for pests to evolve resistance to the toxins produced by Bacillus thuringiensis

(plants with Bt genes).

d)              Crops carrying antibiotic genes used as selectable markers may generate anti-resistance in

livestock or humans.

The advantages of genetically modified crops:

a)               Increases in yields and hence a faster route to feed the world’s teeming population

b)              Reduction in pesticide and fertilizer usage hence less groundwater pollution

c)               Increases in the nutrient value of basic foods

d)              Plants that are better able to tolerate drought, salinity, diseases and lack of soil nutrients

e)               Possibility of using food as drugs to heal people.