Which is the best estimate of how long it will take to complete a task assuming there are no problems?

1. Career development
2. 6 Steps to Estimate Time for Tasks More Accurately

By Indeed Editorial Team

Published June 15, 2021

The Indeed Editorial Team comprises a diverse and talented team of writers, researchers and subject matter experts equipped with Indeed's data and insights to deliver useful tips to help guide your career journey.

Accurately estimating how long a task might take helps to create a realistic project timeline or schedule, which can boost a project's or employee's chances for success. While an exact estimate may be difficult to make, you can learn to improve the way you estimate time for tasks. If you work with schedules or timelines, you can follow a series of steps to improve the accuracy of your time estimates. In this article, we discuss why estimating time for tasks is important, why it's challenging, how to improve it and some tips on how to estimate more accurately.

Why is estimating time for tasks important?

If you have an accurate estimate for how long a task will take, you have a much higher chance of meeting the deadline for your task. Even if the task doesn't have a deadline, knowing how long it will take can help you plan out your day and ensure you finish everything that needs to be done. This can reduce the need for overtime and ensure you have the time to create quality work.

Having an accurate estimate for tasks is especially crucial for project management. Project timelines rely on estimates, so a project is much more likely to end on time if the estimates are correct. When you finish a project on time or early, you improve your project's chance of success and often boost your reputation at work.

Related: Everything You Need to Know About Time Management Within Project Management

Why is estimating time for tasks so challenging?

There may be a few reasons people find estimating time to be difficult, but one common explanation is the planning fallacy. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky proposed that people often focus more on the task ahead and ignore or forget their previous experiences. Even if someone knows they always spend 30 minutes to proofread a monthly report, according to the planning fallacy, they may believe they can finish it in 15 minutes next time.

Another reason people have a hard time estimating time might be optimism bias. People generally believe the future can be better than the past. Even if they have experienced the same event many times before, they still think they can outperform their past selves. Often, people plan for the best-case scenario rather than a more realistic scenario. For example, an employee working from home may estimate that it takes an hour to draft a proposal. However, they may not factor in interruptions from partners, children or phone calls that extend the project to two hours.

How to be better at estimating time for tasks

Following a few simple steps can help you improve your ability to estimate how long a project or task may take. Use these suggestions to increase the accuracy of your time estimates:

1. List all the steps

First, you must break down the project or task into a series of steps. For example, if you need to write a project proposal, you'll need to:

• Perform research

• Consult with other employees

• Write the proposal

• Proofread and edit it

• Send it to your manager for review

• Send the final proposal

Once you have your list, place the steps in a logical order. At this stage, you only need a list. You need more information to decide on an estimate. Include any deadlines each step might have so you can consider this when you make your timeline.

Related: 8 Steps To Creating a Project Timeline and Top Benefits

2. Gather everyone involved

Meet with everyone taking part in the project so that you can ask for their suggestions on time estimates. This is especially helpful if you have employees with specialized skills on your team or project leads who may have estimated similar tasks before, as they may know more about how long a step might take. If anyone has completed a similar project, ask them to bring along their project's timeline so you can reference it.

3. Estimate the time required for each step

Some call this approach the bottom-up approach, since you start from the smallest step and estimate the time for each step, rather than estimating the time for the entire project. Ask how long the team thinks each step may take, especially if they have done something similar before or have specialized knowledge. If you use any data to make your predictions, such as previous project timelines, consider including that with your finalized schedule.

Related: Calculating the Estimated Time To Completion of a Project

4. Add in extra time

Ask yourself what might come up later that could require more time than you expect. Some things to consider include:

• Employees who work on the project part-time and may not be available at all times

• Project members who might need time off

• Delays in supplies

• Meeting times with clients or shareholders

• Consulting with management on decisions

• Presentations that require preparation and time away from the project

• Team meetings

• Testing parts of the project

5. Combine the steps to make a schedule

Put each step together into a schedule and add up the time required for each step to make a realistic timeline for your project or task. Include additional time you might need as well and compare it to similar completed projects to see if the timeline is comparable.

Related: Creating a Timeline: Tips and Example

6. Assess your timeline after project completion

Track your time throughout the project using a time tracker or project management software, then compare the actual timeline with your projected timeline. Look for any differences and consider why the actual timeline didn't match the estimate. If you notice any insights, consider them for future time estimations.

Tips on better estimating time for tasks

Some things you can do to estimate the time you need for a task more accurately include:

• Time your tasks. Spend a week or longer tracking how long it takes to complete everything you do. This may help you understand how long you need to complete certain tasks, which can improve your ability to estimate time for future tasks.

• Use a fudge ratio. A fudge ratio is an estimate of how much you underestimate or overestimate the time you need for tasks. You can calculate it by dividing the number of hours it actually takes you to complete a task by the number of hours you thought it would take. Multiply future estimates by this ratio to create a more exact estimate.

• Overestimate your time requirements. Add 25-50% to your estimate so you have a higher chance of accurately estimating the time you need.

• Check your schedule. Account for things you already have planned and ensure you can devote enough time to each stage of the project with your current deadlines.

• Use a three-point estimation. Estimate the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario and the most realistic scenario. Use these three data points to create a more accurate estimation.

• Get feedback. Ask for feedback from others, especially if they have done a similar project.

• Use time tracking apps. Try different websites or software options to document how long certain tasks take.

• Estimate someone else's time. Imagine how long you think it would take someone else to complete the task. People often estimate time more accurately for others than for themselves.

• Consider breaks. When you make your schedule, think about when you might need to take a break from your work, such as coffee breaks or meetings.