Why would california and washington choose to use the top-two form of the open primary?

Why would california and washington choose to use the top-two form of the open primary?
The top-two primary creates incentives for legislators to be less extreme than those elected in closed primary systems, says USC’s Christian Grose. (Illustration/iStock)

New USC research shows that lawmakers elected in states with top-two primaries are less likely to cast extreme ideological votes on legislation.

“Advocates for reform argue that top-two primary creates incentives for legislators to be less extreme than those elected in closed primary systems, as they must appeal to same-party, different-party, and independent voters,” said Christian Grose, academic director of the USC Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy and the study author. “This study is the first to demonstrate this outcome by analyzing the voting behavior of members of Congress.”

Three states — California, Louisiana and Washington — have a top-two primary system in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance from the primary to the general election. Other states still have primaries in which a member of each party advances to the general election.

For the study, Grose compared election results of U.S. House of Representatives members in those three top-two primary states to representatives elected in all other states. Grose also examined how state legislative races in those three states were affected.

Looking at lawmakers’ roll call votes over a 15-year time period, Grose found the top-two primary led to less extreme behavior by members of Congress in the three open primary states.

Grose presented the research during an online event co-hosted by the USC Schwarzenegger Institute and Open Primaries. The study will be published in the June issue of the Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy.

Scaling roll call votes by ideology

Grose used a multidimensional scaling application called DW-NOMINATE — developed by political scientists Keith T. Poole, Howard Rosenthal and James Lo — to assign each House member a score ranging from -1 (most liberal) to +1 (most conservative). The scores were based on roll call votes from 2003 to 2018 by each member of Congress and were used to determine where lawmakers fell along the ideological spectrum.

Top-two primaries reduce legislator extremity by almost double the amount of the reduction of open primaries.

Christian Grose

Grose also found legislators elected in open primaries show some evidence of reduced extremity. He found this ideological moderation among both incumbents and newly elected legislators, although newer members of Congress who were first elected under the reformed elections systems were even less extreme.

“The magnitude of the effect sizes between top-two and open primaries were particularly interesting,” Grose said. “Top-two primaries reduce legislator extremity by almost double the amount of the reduction of open primaries.”

Top-two primaries: The cure for political polarization?

Political scientists say partisan polarization in Congress is at its highest levels in more than 100 years. Reformers believe changes to electoral institutions are an important way to break through these growing divisions, which contribute to increased legislative gridlock, an inability to negotiate and fundamental breakdowns in the policymaking process.

As of 2020, the top-two primary elects just under one-fifth of the country’s House members each year. The system allows all voters, regardless of party affiliation, to vote in the first-round primary and the second-round general election. The second-round general election features the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round, even if both candidates are from the same party.

While the top-two primary requires voters to consider all candidates, open primaries allow voters to choose which party primary they would like to vote. Both systems contrast with closed primaries, which limit first-round participation to registered party voters and lead to different-party general election matchups.

Supporters of the top-two primary say this system may be the antidote to the increasing ideological polarization in Washington, D.C., and many state legislatures. Advocates interested in increasing options and access for independent voters have worked to expand the top-two and other open primaries to several states.

Meanwhile, both major political parties have fought these reforms, actively working to oppose ballot initiatives supporting top-two primaries and challenging them in the courts. Notably, the Florida Supreme Court recently voted to allow a constitutional amendment known as “All Voters Vote” on the November ballot; if it passes, it will open that state’s closed primary system to its more than 13 million voters, regardless of party registration, and create a top-two primary in Florida.

“This study demonstrates the type of primary and electoral systems we choose can reduce extremism and ultimately political polarization,” Grose said. “Those interested in reducing legislator extremity in the U.S. House should consider adopting new primary systems that encourage legislator moderation.”

More stories about: Elections, Research

SACRAMENTO — In California primaries, Republicans can vote for Democrats. Democrats can vote for Republicans. And in general elections, candidates from the same party can end up going head-to-head.

For the past decade, California has departed from traditional American primaries, in which voters from each party pick the candidate who will represent them on a general election ballot. Instead, all the candidates from all the parties are listed on the same primary ballot, and the top two vote-getters face off in the general election regardless of party affiliation.

Also known as “open” or “jungle” primaries, these kinds of elections aim to produce elected officials who are more inclined toward compromise and consensus by encouraging candidates to look beyond the true believers in the bases of their parties, courting moderates and independents.

And California’s system is increasingly being discussed elsewhere as a possible solution to hyperpartisanship.

“The basic logic is not crazy,” said Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank. “A lot of voters do actually sit between the positions of the two parties.”

But can it help drain extremism from political discourse?

“I think it’s probably the case that it can produce more moderate legislators,” said J. Andrew Sinclair, an assistant professor of government at Claremont McKenna College who has studied the top-two system. “But it’s hard to sort out, and there’s a fairly robust debate about it.”

In a traditional primary system, candidates have incentive to appeal to their party’s base rather than seek crossover votes. Republicans can win by appealing to conservatives who make up the largest share of primary voters or Democrats can win by espousing liberal ideas.

But in California, the top-two system is intended to encourage crossover voting. In a battleground district, a candidate might try to build a coalition of support with base and moderate voters to advance to the general election.

In districts where one party predominates, two candidates from the same party can — and do — emerge from the primary and move on to the general election. In theory, the more centrist candidate can capture crossover votes in the runoff and win.

It appears to have had at least a modest impact. Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, has found that Asian American and Latino voters are more likely to turn out under the top-two system because a higher share of them are registered as independents. And members of Congress elected under top-two are slightly more moderate than candidates who would most likely have been elected under California’s old system.

In Alaska, a similar “top-four” primary has created some independence from former President Donald J. Trump for Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, by making it harder for him to threaten her with a primary challenger from the right.

But a 2017 research paper by Mr. McGhee and Boris Shor, a political science professor, found that the top-two system had a “modest and somewhat inconsistent effect on representation” in the first few election cycles in California and Washington.

It’s also hard to separate top-two from California’s other reforms that created an independent redistricting commission and changed state legislative term limits, which were enacted around the same time.

And in the past decade, demographic and other changes have intensified California’s one-party rule, such that Democrats now have supermajority control of the Legislature and Republicans have not won statewide since 2006.

“It works, but the size of the effect doesn’t meet the size of the issue,” Mr. McGhee said. “Too many other things are pushing things to the poles, so that you’re tinkering around the margins at best.”

For years, Californians discussed open primaries as a way to ease political gridlock, but the parties opposed them. In the 1990s, in fact, voters enacted a “blanket” primary that also put all the candidates on a single ballot, but in 2000 the U.S. Supreme Court declared it unconstitutional.

The idea rose again, however, after a wrenching state budget battle toward the end of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s second term as governor in 2009. Slammed by recession and mired in opposite partisan corners, California was operating with a deficit that was bigger than the entire expenditures of most states.

Back when Democrats needed Republican votes to pass a California budget, the deal to approve cuts, taxes and borrowing came down to a single Republican, State Senator Abel Maldonado, a moderate of the sort typically hampered by strong political parties.

One of his demands? Agreement from Democrats to put a top-two primary on the ballot, which would allow all voters to choose from all candidates, regardless of party, and send only two to the general election.

Maldonado may have had good government intentions, but he also had higher aspirations — and had reason to believe the top-two system would better suit his chances down the road.

Neither Democratic nor Republican stalwarts ever forgave him; after a brief appointment as lieutenant governor at the end of the Schwarzenegger administration, his bids for Congress and governor were unsuccessful, and talk of a cabinet appointment in the Trump administration failed to gain traction. But California voters passed the top-two initiative in 2010.