Has voting become easier or more difficult than it was in the past

Election Day is less than three weeks away. Are you registered to vote? If not, you may still have a chance. Or you may be out of luck. At this point, it all depends on where you live.

In New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Kentucky, the registration deadline has passed. Alabamians and South Dakotans have until next Monday. Other states, like Minnesota and Idaho, are more generous, allowing citizens to register right up until the election and, increasingly, letting them vote on the same day.

This patchwork is a result of America’s highly decentralized electoral process, which is a good design in many ways, but which leads to a wide variety of voting laws and policies from state to state. Call it the democracy gap.

In the places on the wrong side of that gap, it’s confusing and discouraging to potential voters, especially those most likely to have difficulty getting registered and to the polls in the first place. It’s unnecessary, because states have already shown that it’s not difficult to register voters up until — and on — Election Day. And it’s the opposite of what the world’s oldest and richest democracy should be doing, which is simple: Make voting as easy and accessible as possible.

Registration is a key to that effort, because once people register, they are very likely to vote. In 2016, 87 percent of registered voters surveyed said they cast their ballot, as compared with 61 percent of all eligible voters. And while federal laws like the National Voter Registration Act have made registration and voting somewhat easier, they don’t go far enough.

Why can’t every state get with the program? Partly it’s bureaucratic inertia. Partly it’s incumbents protecting “their” electorate. And partly, it’s that our elections are run by partisan political officials — a terrible idea, as most other modern democracies have figured out. In those countries, election administration is the job of independent commissions or other bodies that are insulated from partisan politics. Here in America, it’s the job of people like Brian Kemp.

Mr. Kemp is Georgia’s secretary of state, a post he’s held since 2010. He’s also the state’s Republican candidate for governor, which means he has spent the past eight years setting the electoral rules and practices for the same people who will decide his fate in November.

During that time, Mr. Kemp has pursued multiple investigations into minority voter-registration drives, alleging voter fraud even though he’s found virtually none. He purged 1.5 million voters from Georgia’s rolls from 2012 to 2016, more than double the number than in the previous two election cycles. And last week, The Associated Press reported that Mr. Kemp has suspended the registrations of 53,000 voters, 70 percent of whom are African-American, for failing the state’s unusually strict “exact match” policy, which requires a voter’s name on his or her registration to be identical to that on other state records. If it isn’t — either because of a minor typo or a clerical error — the registration is suspended until the voter resolves the discrepancy.

The Justice Department blocked the first version of the exact-match policy, in 2009, for discriminating against black, Asian and Latino voters in violation of the Voting Rights Act. Four years later, the Supreme Court gutted the heart of the act and paved the way for the policy and other discriminatory measures like it.

In the absence of meaningful federal oversight of voting laws, states can take the lead. Many have already taken steps to modernize and streamline their voter-registration systems. It’s not hard, as long as your goal is ensuring that as many people as possible can participate in the political process.

The gold standard is automatic voter registration, which has become law or policy in 13 states since 2015, with more likely to adopt it soon. In states with automatic registration, which cross the political spectrum, an interaction with a government agency, like the Department of Motor Vehicles, automatically registers an eligible citizen to vote, unless he or she affirmatively opts out. This increases voter turnout, saves money and increases the accuracy of voter rolls.

In Oregon, the first state to adopt automatic registration, the rate of new registrations quadrupled in the first year, to 272,000; by one estimate, more than 116,000 of those Oregonians were unlikely to have registered otherwise. Nationwide, automatic registration could add as many as 22 million voters to the rolls in a year, which would translate into roughly eight million more people casting a ballot, according to a study by the Center for American Progress.

Another common-sense innovation is same-day registration — letting voters register and vote during a single trip to the polls, whether on Election Day or in an early-voting period, as 17 states and the District of Columbia now offer. This lifts the pressure of early registration deadlines and is especially relied on by groups who move frequently or struggle to make multiple visits to election offices — like minorities, young voters and working parents.

There’s also online registration, which is cheaper, more accurate, more convenient and more intuitive to a generation of Americans who have grown up in front of computer screens. Speaking of the younger generation, four million Americans turn 18 every year, and getting them preregistered when they’re 16 or 17 increases the likelihood that they’ll vote.

Of course, registration doesn’t mean much if people don’t get out and vote. And lack of time or opportunity to get to the polls is one of the biggest hurdles to voting for people who are registered. The good news is that more and more states are coming to realize that there’s nothing sacred about voting on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Thirty-seven states and the District of Columbia offer a period of early voting, and more than one-third of all voters now vote on a day other than Election Day.

Beyond its convenience to voters, early voting makes for shorter lines, which eases pressure on poll workers and reduces chances for error. The same goes for voting by mail, as Oregon, Washington and Colorado now require for all voters, and no-excuse absentee ballots.

All of these advances are intuitive and easy to carry out. And yet one in four eligible Americans — roughly 50 million people — remain unregistered. Some of these people are uninterested in politics or disillusioned with the candidates or the process. But many others would most likely register — and vote — if doing so were easier.

Voting in a democracy shouldn’t be a test of your mettle or perseverance. It shouldn’t depend on how much time you can take off from work, away from child care or other obligations. And in 2018, there’s no reason it can’t be made as easy as possible for everyone.

There’s been a good deal of crying foul about what are being called anti-democratic new state laws that make it harder to vote.

But it turns out such laws might have little impact on voter turnout and vote margins in an election.

That’s according to a February 2022 analysis by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a newsletter that provides nonpartisan election analysis.

The 2020 presidential election had the highest voter turnout of the past century, with 66.8% of citizens 18 years and older voting in the election.

Robust voter turnout could be the difference maker in the 2022 midterm election. Voter turnout for midterm elections is typically lower than for presidential elections.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for grabs during the election. Democrats hold slim majorities in both chambers. If Republicans are able to increase the number, they will likely flip control of both chambers in their favor.

As a political scientist, I study state voting and elections rules. Voting is important to a healthy democracy because it is how we consent to being governed and let elected officials know what policies we want.

Voting laws also protect against voter fraud. Thanks to these laws, election fraud in the United States is very rare and typically has no impact on the election outcome.

Sometimes these rules can create burdens for citizens who want to vote. This can lead to citizens’ losing trust in their government. Citizens’ losing trust in the government can be harmful to our democracy.

It is too soon to say the full effect that these new voting laws will have in shaping the 2022 elections.

New laws might not make voting easier or harder

During the 2021 legislative sessions, 36 states adopted legislation that change the way citizens vote.

Most of these recent laws don’t make voting easier or harder. They make the process easier for the state and local officials who run elections.

For example, a new law in Utah improves communication between the Social Security Administration and election officials to ensure that dead voters are removed from voter registration lists.

States making it harder to vote

Nineteen states, meanwhile, enacted 33 laws that can make it harder for Americans to vote, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.

In Texas, for example, a 2021 law requires voters to provide part of their Social Security or driver’s license number on their mail-in ballot request. The number must match the one voters used when they registered to vote. Two million registered voters in Texas lacked one of the two numbers in their voter file that they gave when they registered to vote.

A large number of mail-in ballot requests for Texas’ March 2022 primary have been rejected because of this change. Texas has also limited the hours for early voting locations and banned the popular trend of drive-through voting.

In Georgia, voters requesting absentee ballots must now provide a photo ID when they request a mail ballot and when they return it.

Georgia also joined Texas, Iowa and Kansas in passing a law forbidding county and state election officials from automatically sending mail-in or absentee ballot requests to registered voters.

In some cases, things are getting easier

Twenty-five states, meanwhile, have passed 62 laws since 2020 that could make voting easier.

Delaware and Hawaii joined 20 other states that now automatically register citizens to vote when they turn 18. Early research shows that automatic voter registration may modestly increase voter turnout.

Some states made it easier for specific groups of voters. For example, in Maine, students can use their student photo ID to vote. In North Dakota, students can share a letter from a college or university to vote. Indiana now allows a document issued by a Native American tribe or band to serve as valid ID to vote.

Ten states – including California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois and Kentucky – increased access to mail ballot drop boxes and locations in 2021.

Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada and Vermont passed bills that protect or ease voter access to polling places. Maryland’s bill requires counties to offer a minimum number of early voting centers based on population. Vermont will now allow outdoor and drive-up voting. Starting with the 2022 primary election, all voting in Hawaii will be by mail.

These changes give voters more options or simply make it easier to vote and may help increase turnout.

Has voting become easier or more difficult than it was in the past
People march during a voting rights demonstration about voter suppression on Aug. 28, 2021, in Washington, D.C. John Lamparski/Andalou Agency via Getty Images

What will happen in 2022?

Many voting rights activists expect that turnout will decrease in states that made voting harder and increase in states that made it easier.

The answer may not be that simple.

Scholars don’t agree about how voting rules affect voter turnout. Studies don’t consistently show that individual voting laws lower voter turnout.

But a state’s overall collection of voting laws can have more sway during elections. Scholars call the combined effect of voting laws “the cost of voting.” When the cost of voting grows higher, overall turnout decreases.

Turnout in the 2020 presidential election was unusually high, even with some state laws that voting rights advocates believe made it harder for people of color and other groups to vote.

Voting laws are not the only influencers of voter turnout. But adding extra hurdles to voting may lead to frustration that keeps some voters at home. The upcoming midterm elections will provide clarity about whether these new voting laws have a measurable impact on voter turnout.

[The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories. Sign up for Politics Weekly.]

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